California Family Minute

by Rebecca Burgoyne, 
CFC Research Analyst

At least four measures to increase taxes are taking aim at the November 2012 ballot. Rob Stutzman, a GOP strategist, told the Sacramento Bee, “They’re larding the ballot with taxes. Voters won’t be able to tell the difference and will vote against them all.” The administration of Gov. Jerry Brown, who announced the details of his own plan yesterday, is reportedly working behind the scenes to prevent that scenario by limiting the field. 

Historically, the last seven times tax increases have been proposed, voters have rejected them. But the proponents of these measures aimed at the 2012 ballot are taking their cue from polling data and the Occupy Wall Street tax-the-rich sentiment. A Field Poll last June found 59 percent of voters were not willing to increase taxes to balance the state budget, but a recent USC/Los Angeles Times poll found 64 percent would favor new taxes for education. Although “tax-the-rich” sentiment seems to be building in many circles, even state treasurer Bill Lockyer, a Democrat, recognizes that taxes on the rich may be high enough. Raising taxes on the state’s top 1 percent – who already provide half the state’s revenue – may cause them to “live and work out of one of their other houses” (if taxes are raised here), Lockyer told the Sacramento Press Club last summer. “And then very quickly we lose a substantial source of income.” He concluded, “I think we’re very near the tax ceiling on the personal income tax side.” 

Proposals headed to the ballot: 

Governor Brown’s Proposal
The governor’s proposal would impose a tax increase on high-income earners retroactive to January 2012 and raise the sales tax on everyone a half-cent – both of which would expire in 2016. The governor will also ask voters to permanently realign the tax burden onto local governments for certain services – including prisoner housing. Expected to raise $7 billion – the maximum Democrats believe the public will support – the money would reportedly flow directly to school districts.  

According to a Field Poll released yesterday, 68 percent of Californians believe the state is moving in the wrong direction. In the public's view, the Legislature continues to perform poorly, with only 22% approving of the job their representatives are doing. More than 30 initiatives are currently in circulation, collecting signatures for the November 2012 ballot, and an additional 39 measures are pending at the Attorney General’s Office, where they receive a title and summary. 

The November ballot promises to be crowded with many complicated, conflicting measures, a fact that doesn’t bode well for their passage. Confused voters – especially when confronted with multiple tax measures – tend to vote “no.” Unless the unions and tax-the-rich crowd unite behind a single measure, few of the proposals have little chance of success.