PRIMARY ELECTION THOUGHTS

by Ron Prentice, CEO
June 10, 2010

November’s general election is going to be here before we know it, but we’ll have a lot of reminders judging by the amount of money spent in the primary on political advertising! 

Two Republican candidates vying for governor spent well over $100 million in total, but campaign money did not bring out the voters. Turnout for the primary election totaled 24.8% of all registered voters, with Riverside County winning the “most apathetic” award at 16.5%. Orange and Los Angeles counties were close behind with 19% turnouts. By comparison, the general election of 2008 brought out over 59% of all registered voters. Figures are not yet available regarding the specific turnout percentages by political party. Democrat numbers may have been somewhat suppressed due to the limited competition Jerry Brown faced at the top of the ticket.   

Following are a few thoughts from the election results: 

Republican gubernatorial candidate Meg Whitman’s campaign spent a reported $85 million to soundly quash her closest opposition, Steve Poizner. And now Whitman will face former California Governor Jerry Brown, who easily beat out several other contenders for the Democratic nomination. It won’t be Brown’s money against Whitman’s, but Brown is expected to receive tens of millions of dollars from the Democratic Party for the battle ahead. In Poizner’s consolation speech Tuesday night in Irvine, he credited his campaign with forcing Whitman to posit more conservative messages, and he hoped that Whitman would hold to her campaign statements and promises.

Former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina handily won the Republican nomination, to battle against incumbent Barbara Boxer in November. The campaigns of former Congressman Tom Campbell and state Assemblyman Chuck DeVore were no financial match to Fiorina’s funding, disallowing any significant advertising by them in the final weeks. Fiorina commits to pro-life and traditional marriage perspectives.

The district attorney for the city of Los Angeles, Steve Cooley (R), will compete in November against San Francisco district attorney Kamala Harris (D), for selection as our state government’s chief attorney.   As Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger and Attorney General Jerry Brown have opposed their duty to protect the constitutional amendment defining marriage (Prop 8), there was hope that constitutional law professor John Eastman, former dean of the law school at Chapman University, would succeed in his bid for the Republican nod. far, private citizens have given millions of dollars to fight the legal battles, and a man of Eastman’s character and legal competence would have led the legal fight on behalf of California’s voters and their Constitution. Such help is not expected from either Cooley or Harris.

Governor Schwarzenegger pledged to put the “open” primary on the ballot in return for then-Senator Abel Maldonado’s vote for last year’s budget. Maldonado was one of a few Republicans who joined with Democrat legislators last year to approve Schwarzenegger’s budget. Prop 14 likely faces legal battles, but will otherwise take effect in 2012. It would bring about a single primary ballot for all voters, and the top two vote getters – regardless of their political parties – would run against each other in the ensuing general election. This new system could influence the vast majority of races, bringing more “centrist” representatives into office, rather than political “liberals” or “conservatives.”  

In districts where the voting population is significantly Democrat or Republican, two candidates from the same party may receive the most votes in a primary and run against each other in the general election. If the district is strongly Republican, for example, the more conservative candidate stands less chance of being elected due to the votes of the majority of Democrats going to the more politically moderate Republican candidate. The same effect would be expected in a staunchly Democrat district, where Republicans may be forced to vote for the less liberal of two Democrats.

Although the vote remains very close and absentee ballot counts are not yet completed, Assemblyman Mike Villines (R-Clovis) may be a casualty of his vote for last year’s budget, against the will of his Assembly Republican counterparts. While many incumbents across the country are being unseated due to their voting records, there is little evidence of that in California. However, several online blogs suggested “anyone but Mike” for Insurance Commissioner, and so far, Brian Fitzgerald, a relative unknown from within the staff of the insurance commission, has a slight lead over the former minority leader of the California Assembly, to vie against Democrat Dave Jones in November.

Very optimistically, as many as nine Assembly seats and three state Senate seats could switch to another political party in November based on voter turnout in the primary election. As you may know, due to severely gerrymandered boundaries, a seat has not changed parties in any district of California for many years.  However, if voter malaise continues and grassroots efforts are strategically implemented, several flips are possible.

However, we cannot depend on political activity to transform a culture. We can and should take advantage of our freedom to participate in the electoral process, as it has been bought with the price of battle and lives, and allows us to influence culture with godly perspectives.

Still, more important is the practice of prayer for God’s work of transformation in ourselves and our society, and boldly communicating eternal Truth and a biblical worldview to all with whom we interact.

For the LORD gives wisdom, and from his mouth come knowledge and understanding. He holds victory in store for the upright, he is a shield to those whose walk is blameless, for he guards the course of the just and protects the way of his faithful ones. Then you will understand what is right and just and fair—every good path. For wisdom will enter your heart, and knowledge will be pleasant to your soul.  Proverbs 2:6-10 NIV